I love setting up my calendar for the new year. There are mundane things to add, like marking which weeks are trash weeks and which are recycling weeks. Then there are exciting things to add — like finally marking the departure date for our Tulip Time trip to Amsterdam. I find both the mundane and the exciting pleasurable. I also enjoy just dreaming about what could be. While January 1 is nothing more than another day on the calendar, it is also something exceptional. It is a chance to start fresh (see footnote 1).
It’s also a time to imagine the future. A recent conversation with my friend Daniel made me realize that I don’t often write down my predictions on what the future holds. We were specifically discussing prediction markets — or rather Daniel was introducing me to the concept. As I’ve continued to reflect on that conversation, I thought it was worthwhile to begin a possibly annual tradition of writing down the big — and maybe not so big — predictions I have for 2025. The NY Times has a great articlewrapping up the first quarter of the century and bringing on their predictions. (That link should get you there without hitting a paywall.). This exercise also spurred a few questions that I’ll keep pondering in the new year.
Predictions
While I disagree with banning an app, I agree that TikTok is problematic. That said, I don’t believe the TikTok ban will be upheld — either because ByteDance figures out a way to divest it (I feel like Elon Musk may get involved in that) or because a higher court will find the ban unconstitutional.
I generally choose sports brackets by team color and mascot. However, I’m slightly interested in this year’s football season because a dear friend is a huge Detroit Lions fan. I’m going to put the Lions and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, with the Lions upsetting the Chiefs' chance at the three-peat. Also Super Bowl related … after the devastating terrorist attack in New Orleans this week, security during “Super Gras”, the dual Super Bowl/Mardi Gras celebration, will be incredibly tight. People will come together and support the Crescent City despite what a terrorist tried to do. I do believe that tragedy will lead to more formidable barriers on some streets in New Orleans — and other cities across the US. After doing more international travel the past few years, I think European cities take a better stance on protecting small civic areas than Americans generally do outside the major tourist areas in DC and New York. And, even my recent trip to NYC revealed that city could do much, much more to prevent or dissuade attacks like this one if it chose to do so.
Superman will end up as the top-grossing film of 2025. Dune: Part Two will be a huge financial disappointment to its studio — and a huge disappointment to its audiences. (In full transparency — I didn’t see Dune: Part One and don’t intend to see Part Two either).
Beyonce will win 10 of the 11 Grammys she is nominated for on the Cowboy Carter album.
The Daytona 500 will be won under a caution again this year.
Suits LA will not get picked up for a second season.
Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone will surpass her World and Olympic Record in the 400m Hurdles (currently 50.37) and come in under 50 seconds. Noah Lyles will have to take part of the season off due to injury.
Speaking of athletics, Paris played host to an amazing Olympic Games. Paris will shine once again as the Notre Dame cathedral re-opening culminates in June with the feast of Pentecost.
The NATO summit, held at The Hague this year, will be the catalyst for events that bring the Russian war against Ukraine to an end.
July 4th celebrations in the US will be negatively impacted by power outages and other communications issues caused by an increase in sunspots due to the solar maximum.
The Phillies are going to win the World Series.
Donald Trump will not attend the UN Climate Change Conference and will pull any American support for the event. The US also will not sign onto the treaty to reduce single use plastics (although we should all do our part on this one).
Closer to my actual area of expertise, while not completely disbanded, the Department of Education will begin the process of gutting the authority of accreditors, ushering in a new age of voluntary accountability programs rather than government sanctioned programs. While I don’t believe we’ll go to full federal block grants to states for financial aid, I do believe that federal financial aid programs will look inherently different after this year. If the Department of Ed takes significant actions in accreditation, all the rest is up for grabs.
Community colleges have enjoyed a “moment in the sun” as higher education broadly has taken a load of knocks. There will be at least two major community college scandals that will break in 2025, putting a black eye on at least some elements of this current light in the higher education darkness.
Bluesky will top 50 million users (it’s at about 25 million right now) — but will see 100 million if they go to a no ads subscription model with the right incentives.
By the end of 2025, I’ll have a video editing workflow, aided by AI, that allows me to easily fit in publishing at least one video per week.
I’ll grow my community to 500 members, with at least 100 of those being new full access subscribers. I’ll host at least two events with more than 50 attendees each.
Employers will face a mass exodus of employees this summer tired of being overworked, undervalued, and not treated as professionals.
What if I’m wrong?
For many of these, it doesn’t really matter. It was fun to look at the future, play Carnac the Magnificent for a few minutes, and then walk away. For those few that directly matter to my day in and day out life, it’s an opportunity to test my internal and external probability estimates in the real world. Our brains are, as a commentary on 2021 research out of Oxford University called them, “prediction machines.” Putting our ideas in writing, or in my case out in public, allows us to measure how well we do at making these predictions and taking action based on them — or to help make them happen.
Questions
This was also, for me, an exercise in stoking my curiosity. Reading through retrospectives of 2024 and looking at other predictions and “what coming” lists for 2025 left me with some questions. Here are a few of those.
Will NASA take drastic measures of some sort as a result of the utter disaster of the Boeing Starliner mission?
What will change in the social media landscape with another Donald Trump presidency — particularly one where he and Elon Musk seem to be BFFs?
AI is as bad as it will ever be right now. How much better will it get in 2025 and in what new ways will I find it required for my workflow?
How do you start learning something when the topic seems insurmountable? For instance, I’m TERRIBLE at pop culture. I don’t know bands, artists, songs, shows, etc. without looking them up. And, the idea of getting into pop culture just feels so daunting. How does one gain knowledge in an area like this — where historical and current knowledge feel equally important?
What are your predictions and questions for the new year?
Looking forward to something big this year? Think there will be some earth shattering happening in 2025? Share it with me. Comment below or hit me up on Bluesky or any other social platform. Or, join my community where you get access to everything I write and publish before anyone else, get exclusive content not published anywhere else, AND you get access to classes, events, and more.
Daniel Pink’s 2018 book When has long been a favorite of mine. I try never to miss an opportunity to share this list from his book.
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